The Washington Commanders will look to improve to 3-1 for the first time since 2011 in their Week 4 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. Here are five keys to securing the victory.
1. Keep Kyler Murray in the pocket.
It's clear after three games that Kyler Murray is fully recovered from his torn ACL that kept him sidelined for most of the 2023. He's completed 68.6% of his passes, which ranks 12th in the NFL, and is tied for the third most passing touchdowns (5).
Murray's most dangerous weapons, however, are his legs, not just because he has 161 yards on just 15 carries, but also due to his ability to extend plays in the backfield. The Commanders' pass-rush must find a way to keep him in the pocket and force Murray to beat them with his arm.
The Commanders continue to be one of the best at winning their matchups on the defensive line and worst at finishing plays, as they're tied for 28th with four sacks despite being 11th in pass-rush win rate. This has bled into the run defense; while the stats show they're around the league average in rushing yards per game, they've also given up explosive plays between the tackles.
Defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. said that getting too far upfield has led to those explosive runs. If the Commanders don't fix that, it will play to Murray's strengths, as one of his biggest runs -- a 27-yard scramble against the Los Angeles Rams -- was up the middle of the field. But Murray can also use those gaps in rush lanes to buy extra time for his receivers, like he did on his 18-yard touchdown to Elijah Higgins after scrambling for nine seconds.
2. Supplement Austin Ekeler's production.
Head coach Dan Quinn already announced that Austin Ekeler, who is currently in the concussion protocol, will be out for Sunday's game. It's a serious blow to the Commanders' offense, as Ekeler is second on the team with 204 scrimmage yards.
As offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury said during his Thursday press conference, though it's not possible to replace Ekeler's role, his absence could mean more snaps for some of the Commanders' other weapons.
Rookie wide receiver Luke McCaffrey is one possible name to keep an eye on. He caught all three of his targets for 44 yards against the Bengals, including a 30-yard catch-and-run on fourth down in the first quarter that helped set up a touchdown. Kingsbury also mentioned McCaffrey as one of the players the Commanders "want to get them more involved and keep bringing them along."
Another could be Zach Ertz, who was also perfect against the Bengals with five catches for 38 yards. Ertz was one of Jayden Daniels' best targets in training camp, and he's currently second on the team with 128 yards. It's possible that Ertz will get even more looks with Ekeler out and could act in the running back's place on some of the screen plays that Washington's offense likes to throw.
No matter who gets the extra snaps, Washington will need to get creative to replicate Ekeler's value.
3. Bottle up Marvin Harrison Jr.
The Commanders have struggled to contain some of the league's better receivers, allowing Ja'Marr Chase to grab 118 yards in Week 3 and Malik Nabers to have 127 yards the week before. They'll face another challenge in Marvin Harrison Jr. against the Cardinals.
Harrison has lived up to being the first receiver off the board in April's draft. After getting just four yards in his NFL debut, he had 130 in Week 2 and 64 in Week 3. He also had a 60-yard touchdown reception -- one of three that he's had so far this season.
The Commanders tried a different approach with Chase in Week 3. Aside from his two scores, they prevented him from getting behind the secondary to stretch the field. Chase still had a good night, but like the rest of the Bengals' offense, he had to settle for short and intermediate receptions.
It's possible the Commanders will use a similar strategy against Harrison. They could also utilize more man coverage against him; according to Pro Football Focus, Harrison has just three receptions for 40 yards on 21 routes against one-on-one matchups. Conversely, Harrison has had a much easier time against zone coverage, as he's caught seven passes for 158 yards.
4. Rely on the run game.
The Commanders will likely be in another shootout against the Cardinals, as both teams are in the top five of points scored per game. As exciting as it was to see Washington outscore the Bengals, it's difficult to rely on that kind of performance on a weekly basis. The Commanders will need to control the ball for as long as possible, and that means running the ball often.
Even without Ekeler, the Commanders should be in good position to execute that game plan. Brian Robinson Jr. is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and ranks 15th with 206 yards. He's accounted for 16 first downs, 11 of which have been picked up on the ground.
The Cardinals are in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed per game, given up 60 first downs and had the fourth most rushing touchdowns scored against them. The Detroit Lions leaned on the run game heavily in their 20-13 win over the Cardinals with 43 carries with 23 going to David Montgomery, who had 105 yards and a touchdown.
The Lions' dedication to the ground game led to them dominating the time of possession, 36:49 – 23:11. Washington will need to have a similar approach, meaning that perhaps their best defense against the Cardinals is to keep them off the field.
5. Get a stop.
The Commanders have punted or given up a turnover in two games, making them the first team in the Super Bowl era to accomplish that feat. The last time Tress Way was on the field for something other than holding the ball for a field goal attempt was in the third quarter of Week 1.
The Commanders have needed to score on almost every possession, too, because their defense has only forced three punts all season.
There's not much analysis to give here, other than that the Commanders must find a way to get opposing offenses to punt the ball. They have allowed teams to convert 61.3% of their third downs, which is by far the worst number in the league. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are one of the best at moving the chains with a 45.5% conversion rate.
Whether it's shoring up missed tackles, preventing explosive plays or playing cleaner football, the Commanders need to take the pressure off their offense.
