The Washington Commanders can lock up a playoff spot this weekend when they host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football. Here are three keys to them getting a primetime win.
1. Contain Bijan Robinson.
There are several talented players on Atlanta's offense, from Drake London to Kyle Pitts and Darnell Mooney, but Bijan Robinson could be the most problematic for the Commanders on Sunday.
Though the Commanders' run defense has improved since in the second half of the season, it suffered a setback of sorts against Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia Eagles. Barkley, who leads the NFL in rushing yards, had 150 yards on 29 carries and led a 211-yard day from the Eagles' offense.
Of course, that does require some context. While Barkley was exceptional in the first quarter with 109 yards, he wasn't for the rest of the game. He had 41 yards for the rest of the game following his 68-yard touchdown. Still, the Commanders have given up the fourth most rushing yards per game this season, so it's still considered a weak spot for the unit.
The Commanders will need more of the latter performance against Robinson, who has 1,196 yards and 10 touchdowns on 259 carries. He was one of the main driving forces behind the Falcons blowing out the New York Giants with two scores. He has the second-highest offensive for his position from Pro Football Focus and the seventh-most yards after contact.
If the Commanders want to make Michael Penix Jr.'s second start a miserable affair (more on that in a bit), taking away the biggest factor in the Falcons' run game would be one of the best ways to do so.
2. Play cleaner football on offense.
As impressive and memorable as the Commanders' comeback effort was against the Eagles, committing five turnovers is simply not a consistent formula and will need to be cleaned up against the Falcons.
In Fairness, that's not indicative of how the Commanders have played all season. Prior to the Eagles game, they had given up the ball just nine times, which would have been tied for the second fewest this year. Their ball security has been part of the offensive success; Jayden Daniels has just eight interceptions and accounted for more than three times as many touchdowns. The offense has only fumbled the ball six times, which is still among the fewest in the league even with the three they had against the Eagles.
The Falcons' defense isn't as aggressive as the Eagles in forcing turnovers, but they have been on a bit of a roll over the past two weeks. They have six in that span, including two interceptions returned for touchdowns against the Giants. But like the Commanders, that number doesn't represent how they have played this season. They had just one takeaway between Weeks 9-14, and that was also when they lost four of five games.
The Falcons are 7-2 when they force at least one turnover this season and 1-5 when they do not. So, the situation is clear for the Commanders: play clean football, and things will be much easier for them.
3. Force Michael Penix Jr. to make rookie mistakes.
The Commanders are set to face another rookie quarterback this weekend with the Falcons benching Kirk Cousins two weeks ago. Penix had a relatively quiet debut against the Giants, completing 67% of his passes for 202 yards and an interception. Still, the rookie has traits that could cause the Commanders problems if they cannot put pressure on him.
The Falcons' offensive line has been mostly solid this season, allowing just 29 sacks and zero against the Giants last weekend. The group is in the bottom half of pass block win rate, but they've held up pass-rushers long enough for Cousins and Penix to get the ball out.
Washington's pass-rush managed to get past arguably the best offensive line in football against the Eagles by taking down Kenny Pickett down three times and Barkley once. Players like Dante Fowler Jr. and Frankie Luvu have been problems for offenses all year because of their quickness and versatility. Luvu has produced the second most pressures for a linebacker, while Fowler is close to having his first double-digit sack season since 2019.
Even though he didn't show it often against the Giants, Penix had one of the best arms in his draft class. He ranked second in big-time throws by Pro Football Focus and had 14 touchdown passes of at least 20 yards during his final season at Washington. The Commanders have the fourth-ranked passing defense but are susceptible to explosive plays downfield at times, particularly when cornerback Marshon Lattimore is not on the field.
Lattimore is on the injury report with a hamstring injury, and the duo of London and Mooney could be a challenge for the Commanders' secondary. The best way to prevent them from having solid days is to speed up Penix's timing and make him uncomfortable.
