The Washington Commanders are coming back from their "mini-bye" rested and ready to get back on track with a home matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. Here are five things to know about Washington's next division opponent.
The Cooper Rush show.
Dak Prescott wasn't playing his best football prior to undergoing season-ending surgery on his hamstring, but losing the three-time Pro Bowler still represents a serious blow to the Cowboys' offense. Enter Cooper Rush, who went 4-1 the last time had to replace Prescott back in 2022. There's still time for Rush to turn things around, but the early returns this year have been uneven at best.
Over the last three weeks -- he stepped in for Prescott in Week 9 against the Atlanta Falcons -- Rush has completed less than 60% of his passes with just two touchdowns and one interception. Dallas' offensive struggles aren't solely on Rush, but the unit also has a combined 16 points in his two starts.
Rush did enough to keep the Cowboys afloat in 2022 with a 60.8 QBR, an 80 passer rating and two game-winning drives. Things have been more precarious this season with Rush posting a 28.4 QBR and a 68.5 passer rating. Granted, the 2022 version of the Cowboys had more firepower, but Rush isn't doing much to elevate the pieces around him, as his –29.8 EPA rating is 54th among all quarterbacks this season.
Rush should present an easier challenge compared to the top-tier quarterbacks Washington faced last week. There's a chance Washington's pass-rush will also be more successful this week; Rush's 46.4 offensive grade under pressure from Pro Football Focus is tied for 18th worst in the league.
Struggles on the ground.
The Cowboys have been known more for their passing attack in recent years thanks to CeeDee Lamb as well as players like Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup in previous year, although their ground game has been an efficient, and at times formidable part of their offense. That is not the case this season, and it's clear that the loss of Tony Pollard in free agency has left the Cowboys searching for answers at the position.
The Cowboys rank 30th with 81.7 rushing yards per game and have only surpassed 100 yards on the ground three times this season. Rico Dowdle, a nice complement to Pollard last season, leads the team with 402 rushing yards but only has a .04 EPA/rush. They're on pace for 1,389 total rushing yards this season, which would be their lowest combined total since 2012.
The matchup could be favorable for the Commanders, who rank 30th in rush defense, but the same could be said for the Cowboys after matching up against quality defenses like the Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions. The Commanders have given up 100 rushing yards in every game except in Week 7 against the Carolina Panthers, who had 95 yards.
Both Dallas' offense and Washington's defense will be looking to exploit each other's weaknesses on the ground. Whoever comes out of Northwest Stadium with a win could be determined by that battle.
A lack of red zone efficiency.
The Cowboys are scoring touchdowns at an alarmingly low rate compared to what they've shown in previous years, averaging just 18.7 points per game. Like everything associated with Dallas these days, there are a litany of reasons for that lack of production, but one of the biggest culprits is its struggles in the red zone.
The Cowboys rank 31st in red zone touchdowns, succeeding in 40% of their red zone trips, and it's not much better when narrowing the sample size down to the last three games. They're tied for 27th, which is a higher ranking, but their rate is much lower at 33%.
Over the course of their five-game losing streak, the Cowboys have scored just four red zone touchdowns. They had a particularly difficult time against the Lions, Eagles and Texans, who kept them out of the end zone on six trips. It's been 25 drives since the Cowboys were able to get in scoring position and finish a drive with a touchdown.
The Commanders' defense, meanwhile, has had similar problems with keeping opponents out of the end zone. They're around the middle of the league in points allowed per game but struggle when teams get inside the 20-yard line. The defense has an allowed red zone touchdown rate of 66.67%, which is tied for 27th and the third worst percentage in the league.
A massive opportunity for Washington's ground game.
The Commanders' ground attack was one of the most efficient in the league for the first nine games thanks to the combination of Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, Jeremy McNichols and Jayden Daniels. They ran into a wall against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Eagles with just 153 yards combined in those losses.
There were a few factors that limited the Commanders' opportunities on the ground, from Robinson being out to Daniels not being as involved and the Eagles and Steelers simply having good defenses. No matter the reason, it's clear they need a spark on the ground. They could get it against the Cowboys.
While the Cowboys have been unable to get much from their ball carriers this season, the same cannot be said of their opponents. The defense has had its moments, like holding the New York Giants to 26 rushing yards, but that is overshadowed by allowing the 49ers to rush for 223 yards, the Eagles to rush for 187 and the Baltimore Ravens to rush for 274. They've also given up 18 rushing touchdowns -- the most in the league.
Washington's offensive struggles against the Steelers and Eagles are multifaceted, but it's clear that the unit is better when it has a strong ground presence. Prior to the Steelers game, the Commanders were third in total offense, third in points per game and fourth in third-down conversions. In the last two games with a limited rushing game, they've scored a combined 46 points, converted eight of their 26 third downs and recorded 506 total yards.
Struggles with turnovers and giveaways.
The Cowboys were one of the NFL's best in the turnover margin from 2021-23, managing to protect the football while also forcing more turnovers than almost any other team. The 2024 season is a much different story, as Dallas is near the bottom in both categories.
It's hard to figure out which stat is more concerning for the Cowboys. On one hand, they've given up the football 20 times, which is tied with the Raiders for the most in the league. They've done so seven times in the last two weeks and have allowed at least one turnover in seven of 10 games. It also seems like the turnovers compound on each other at times, as shown by the 10 combined they committed against the Lions and Eagles. The turnovers in those games alone are as many as one-quarter of the league has all season.
On the other hand, the Cowboys' defense has only forced nine turnovers all season, which is a stark contrast from the 26 they had in 2023 and league-leading 33 they had in 2022. One noticeable reason for this drop is the lack of interceptions forced by the secondary. The 17 they grabbed in 2023 was tied for the fourth most in the NFL; conversely, they have six in 2024, which is tied for the sixth fewest.
Washington's defense hasn't fared much better with 10 forced turnovers, but despite the offense's recent struggles, they still do a good job of taking care of the football. They have five giveaways all season, which is tied with the Los Angeles Chargers for the fewest in the NFL. That has allowed the Commanders to stay in games, even when they aren't performing at their usual efficient rate, as they struggled to do against the Steelers and Eagles.
By now, Washington fans are aware that Cowboys fans travel well, and it's bound to be an interesting atmosphere at Northwest Stadium regardless of Dallas' record. The best way to take the opposing fans out of the game: take advantage of the Cowboys' tendency to cough up the ball, protect it and score.
