The Washington Commanders are looking to go 8-2 for the first time since 1986 with a home matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Here are three keys to the Commanders coming out of Week 10 with a win.
1. Commit to stopping the run.
At their core, the Steelers want to be a run-dominant team. They're 11th in the NFL in yards per game and fourth over the last three games. This presents a challenge for the Commanders' defense as they rank 29th in yards allowed and 27th in the Pro Football Focus' run defense grade. It will be important for Washington to commit more resources to bottling up the Steelers' ground attack, not just for the sake of shoring up a weakness, but also because it would severely cripple the Steelers' offense.
Najee Harris has been one of the best running backs in the NFL over the last month. He's rushed for at least 100 yards in the last three games, and it's not a coincidence that the Steelers are on a three-game winning streak in that span. While giving him the ball is a key piece of the Steelers' success, they aren't always efficient at it. They rank fifth in the NFL in attempts but are tied in 21st in average yards. What's more, Harris ranks 31st among running backs in success rate at 46.3%.
If the Commanders can keep Harris from breaking off explosive runs -- his longest runs of 36, 34 and 26 yards have all come in the last three weeks -- then it will force the Steelers and Russell Wilson to pass the ball more often. It's an area where they are noticeably weaker, even with Wilson's last two performances. They rank 24th in completion rate over the last three weeks, although two of their best days in terms of passing yards have come with Wilson at quarterback.
2. Win contested passes on defense.
Wilson has looked closer to the Seattle Seahawks version of himself than he has in years over the last two weeks. Both of his passer ratings since replacing Justin Fields as the Steelers' quarterback have been over 100, and he's thrown three touchdowns compared to zero interceptions.
Coach Dan Quinn and quarterback Jayden Daniels highlighted Wilson's ability to sling passes downfield, and that has been on display as well, as his average depth of target on deep passes ranks third in the league, according to PFF. He has also relied on contested passes to give his team success, and that's an area the Commanders can capitalize on.
Wideout George Pickens is the obvious weapon that Washington needs to account for on Sunday, particularly on 50/50 passes. He has the fifth most contested targets in the league with 18. His catch rate on those passes is not the best at 33%, but he's also ranked fifth by PFF on deep passes. He has the talent to flip the field for the Steelers, and even for a unit like the Commanders who have done a better job of preventing explosive plays, that can present a problem.
Regardless of whether Marshon Lattimore plays on Sunday, it will be important for the Commanders' defensive backs to win their one-on-one matchups if they commit more resources to stopping the run. If Lattimore doesn't play, it'll likely be Benjamin St-Juste lining up against Pickens, and perhaps it will be a moment where his reputation of being handsy will come in handy, both in terms of deflecting passes and possibly creating turnovers.
3. Protect Jayden Daniels.
Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury said that T.J. Watt keeps him awake at night, and it's easy to see why; he's been a nightmare for offenses throughout his career, as he has double-digit sacks in five of his eight seasons and is on pace to hit that mark again.
Containing Watt will be one of the Commanders' top priorities on Sunday, but they have earned some confidence that they can achieve that goal. They've seen top tier pass-rushers like Dexter Lawrence and Myles Garrett this season, and neither of those players recorded a sack.
The Commanders' offensive line has been a key to that success, as the group has only allowed eight of the team's 18 sacks this season, but protecting Daniels has been a group effort. The team's slot receivers and tight ends have often been used to chip block, like when Daniels threw his second touchdown pass to Terry McLaurin against the New York Giants, and it has helped slow up opposing pass rushes.
Daniels has shown that he can avoid would-be tacklers on his own if needed, but considering the Steelers rank seventh in pass rush win rate, it will be important for the Commanders to keep Daniels as clean as possible.
